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HEADED FOR THE 80s: If we reach our forecast high of 82 degrees today, it will be the warmest day so far this year, and the warmest day since October 15, 2008 when the high was also 82. After some early morning clouds, the sky should become partly sunny today, and the chance of rain is so small we won’t mention it in the forecast. I do think this will be the warmest day out of the next 10 days, so enjoy it.
TO THE NORTHWEST: I see some temperatures lower than 45 below zero over Canada, and that very cold air is as far south as Northwest Kansas. The cold front could trigger strong to severe storms today in the general area from East Oklahoma to near Chicago and Indianapolis, where SPC has a slight risk in place. This front will approach North Alabama tomorrow, but the upper support is long gone, and the front will stall out around here somewhere.
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY: We will forecast a chance of showers tomorrow with our front, but rain should be mostly light, and mostly north of I-20. The front will drift down toward Montgomery by tomorrow night, and that should set the stage for much cooler and mostly cloudy weather Thursday and Friday. Highs will be in the 55 to 60 degree range, and some light rain will be possible at times.
OUR WEEKEND: Sure looks wet at this point; a strong short wave will spin up a surface wave on the front, and rain and a few thunderstorms will be likely Saturday, Saturday night, and into Sunday morning. Sure looks like we could pick up one inch of rain over the weekend with this feature. For now the chance of significant severe weather looks small.
NEXT WEEK: The cold core upper low is pretty much off the board on the 00Z GFS (see the Weather Xtreme video), but we all know it could come back. I do think the first half of next week will be dry and rather cool for March as a long wave upper trough sets up over the eastern third of the nation. Just too early to determine the specifics with model run to run inconsistency.
VOODOO LAND: No sign of any serious severe weather threat through mid-month as an upper air ridge re-builds across the Deep South.
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I am doing a weather program this morning at Chelsea Park Elementary School… then I am headed into the office and the next Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!
