Here is the discussion this morning that would normally accompany the Weather Xtreme Video, however, there won’t be any video due to some Internet connectivity issues beyond my control.
Temperatures across Central Alabama were in the lower 70s for the most part, although it is almost a bit chilly up at Cheaha this morning with a reading of 66 and a southeast breeze around 8 mph. Great conditions for the bike race on Sunday.
Looking like a fairly warm and humid weekend in store for Central Alabama. The upper ridge continues to hold a position just to our west centered over Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. JB provided a great list of hot temperature from out there yesterday afternoon. That upper ridge remains anchored there through Sunday just nosing into Alabama. But on Monday a short wave is expected to slide by just to the north of us with enough influence to bring a back-door front into the northern sections of the state. This will probably provide our best shot at any precipitation for the next five days, but even then it will be of a showery nature.
With a large complex of storms now occurring in southern Missouri, we will need to watch for the possibility of that cluster holding together in the slightly northwest flow. I think the biggest threat would be to the Tennessee Valley, but these clusters can be good forecast busters.
The Storm Prediction Center brings a slight risk of severe weather to the Tennessee-Alabama border on day 2, so that will bear watching should the front be a tad stronger or even a bit further south, the risk for severe storms might reach the Tennessee Valley.
The QPF forecast seems a little over done this morning with amounts over the next five days of 2 to 3 inches and perhaps a little too far south and west. While those amounts are not out of the question in some of the heaviest storms, I think only very limited areas will get those kind of rainfall amounts.
The upper ridge noses back in on Wednesday, but the center stays west of us again, so I do not see any excessive heat for us. Temperatures will likely push into the mid and upper 90s.
What I’m counting on is that the GFS is right for Friday when a stronger and more vigorous short wave plunges across the Southeast US. This should be even better chances for more widespread rain chances if this is correct. The short wave nudges the ridge back toward Arizona paving the way for a trough over the eastern US for the weekend and into next week. If this scenario pans out, we could see temperatures fall back into the upper 80s for several days – now wouldn’t that be nice for July and Alabama?
The tropics remain quiet with nothing being watched at the moment.
The GFS maintains the east coast trough well into voodoo territory, but I really expect that pattern to change in future runs. That would be awfully nice for us with reasonably good shower chances each day and temperature below seasonal values.
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Again, sorry for the lack of a video this morning. Perhaps the Internet issues will be gone by tomorrow morning. I will do my best to post a video by 8 am or so Sunday. On a lighter note, driving back to the camp site two evenings ago, my wife and I spotted a deer – nothing really spectacular here. But what was spectacular was that she had a very small fawn with her. So small in fact that we believe it is the smallest one we’ve ever seen. She was about two feet long, walked by leaping, and raised her tail with every movement. She was not very tallk either, and by our estimation only barely reached the underbelly of the mom. We watcher them for about five minutes until they meander into the thicker woods. Lovely sight! Enjoy the day and Godspeed.
-Brian-
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