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The air we have today is right off the vast snow field across the Midwest and the Great Lakes, and temperatures remain below forecast levels today. At 1:00, Birmingham is at only 48 degrees, while Muscle Shoals is reporting only 39. Brisk indeed.
But, for the warm weather fans your days are coming… a major upper trough will form out over the western U.S. tomorrow and over the weekend, pumping up a big ridge here across the Southeast U.S. The 12Z GFS is showing a high of 75 for Birmingham on Saturday, with 76 on Sunday. That 76 degree high on Sunday, if correct, will break the old December 9 record of 74 set in 1946.
There will be cloudy periods during the next several days, but there is no well defined trigger for rain, and most communities will remain dry through Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: The big trough in the western part of the nation will lift out early in the week. There will be a very sharp thermal gradient across the Southern Plains on Monday and Tuesday, but some folks over parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri will be slammed with a nasty ice event in that shallow cold air.
For Alabama, the 12Z GFS shows our best chance of showers with the trailing front now on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, followed by colder air on Wednesday and Thursday. Once again, I am not bullish on rain totals with this event; I am afraid rain amounts will be light and spotty.
LONG RANGE: The 12Z GFS continues the idea of a much better rain event in the December 16-17 time frame… and for the GFS haters, the idea is supported by the European ( the ECMWF). Still not a forecast because it is more than seven days in advance, but the pattern would favor something like this. And, into voodoo land the 12Z GFS shows another nice rain event three days before Christmas, but we won’t go there by any means.
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I sure enjoyed the drive into Cleburne County this morning… I spoke to the entire student body at Fruithurst Elementary School. The kids were great, and they will be featured today on the KIDCAM at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. This was the first day where the Alabama countryside is really looking like winter; the gusty winds behind last night’s cold front sure seemed to shake most of the leaves off the trees. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
