This past Monday was Groundhog Day. A holiday celebrated in America in which a famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, emerges from his burrow in a small town called Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Then, either he sees his shadow and the country prepares for six more weeks of winter, or he doesn’t and the country welcomes an early spring. This year, after a particularly active month for winter weather, Phil saw his shadow and many aren’t too happy with his forecasts.
How accurate has Phil been in the past? The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, found that his predictions were right around 35% of the time, in a study conducted in January 2025. Certainly not the most accurate forecaster the States have to rely on!
Will he be right this year? Of course, we don’t know for sure if he will be right or wrong until it happens, but we do have resources such as the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) that help us with what to expect. The CPC’s 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook, valid for the 13th-17th, predicts above-normal temperatures spanning from Colorado to West Virginia and from North Dakota to Texas. The West and East, on the other hand, will see temperatures near or below normal. Looking further ahead, the 8-14 Day Outlook, for the 15th-21st, sees a shift of the above normal temperatures to the East, while the West will continue to be below normal. And finally, the 3–4-week outlook, valid from February 21-March 6, is predicting above-normal temperatures for the majority of the south, and slightly below normal temperatures for North Dakota and Minnesota.
So, spring-like temperatures may be in store for the majority of the country despite Punxsutawney Phil’s winter prediction! The first day of spring is March 20th, so there is a week that is still relatively unknown. Regardless of how right or wrong Phil is, his holiday is a fun tradition that brings winter lovers and spring lovers together, even if its for just a moment.
