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The SPC just issued a mesoscale discussion that indicates a watch is likely shortly for West Central Alabama.
Indications are that it will be a tornado watch.
Here is the discussion text:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1873
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT MON SEP 03 2012
AREAS AFFECTED…E CNTRL MS…W CNTRL AL
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY
VALID 032025Z – 032130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…80 PERCENT
SUMMARY…DMGG WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS
ORGANIZED STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. A WW IS POSSIBLE SHORTLY.
DISCUSSION…CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED…WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOW RECORDED IN THE LOWER 90S. AGITATED CU
FIELD ALONG A CONFLUENT AXIS FROM N OF GWO TO S OF BHM…AS WELL AS
A FEW BETTER DEFINED CORES ON RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS W CNTRL AL SEEM
TO INDICATE AN ATTEMPT AT MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS ATTM…WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. A DEEPLY
SATURATED AIR MASS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO AN EVENTUAL CLUSTER OF
STORMS CAPABLE PRIMARILY OF DMGG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER…VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT /33 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR PER VAD WIND
PROFILE DATA/ MAY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL ROTATION WITH ACCOMPANYING DMGG
WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO.
..HURLBUT/CORFIDI.. 09/03/2012
