The SPC just reported that they will not be extending the severe thunderstorm watch into northeastern Mississippi or Northwest Alabama at this time. The current severe thunderstorm watch will be allowed to expire on time at 5 a.m.
The northern part of the line of storms over Mississippi is weakening as it moves eastward. The cap over Northeast Mississippi and Alabama will prevent surface based storms for a while. Elevated storms will be possible. This means that the storms are not rooted in the airmass near the surface, but from a warm, moist layer higher up in the atmosphere. This makes it hard for damaging winds to reach the surface and even harder for tornadoes to form.
The cap will weaken later this morning as it is eroded both from below and above by dropping tempertaures aloft and the moistening of the atmosphere from underneath and storm intensification will again be possible.
Severe weather is possible across all of Alabama today. The big question will be instability. Wind shear will not be an issue, with wind fields strong at all levels. You can hear the winds roaring out there this morning. At 4:20 a.m., winds at BHM were SSW at 23 gusting to 32 mph.
