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As I often say here, there comes a time when you quit staring at computer model output and look out the window. I think that is appropriate this morning; the area to watch is Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas as the next impulse in the southern branch of the jet brings a cold rain and a little ice. Looks like the winter storm warning for the Dallas/Fort Worth area was a bust; their temperatures are generally in the mid 30s with rain falling, so that warning was cancelled earlier this morning for our friends out there. Yep, kids, you will have to go to school today…
The models are coming in a tad wetter for tonight and tomorrow morning, and considering the airmass we have in place now (Birmingham is at 19 with a dewpoint of 10), that could be problematic.
Dewpoints during the day today will drop down into the single digits, so the low levels are very dry. Then, tonight, as precipitation tries to fall much of it will simply evaporate, which is a cooling process. So, even with no cold air advection, the “wet bulbing” effect of evaporative cooling will drop surface temperatures down into the low 30s in spots after midnight.
Some sleet will fall tonight at the onset of the precipitation, changing over to light rain after midnight. And, where temperatures are at 32 or lower, it will be light freezing rain. We need to stress is this no major precipitation event; the 06Z NAM prints only 0.01″ for Birmingham. However, the GFS is now showing 0.12″ here, and you can’t ignore that considering radar trends to the west. While that rain is falling, the GFS shows a 2M temperature of 32.6 degrees, so it will be a very close call. I don’t think this will be a major winter weather event, since it is likely that much of the precipitation won’t reach the ground.
BOTTOM LINE: Just be aware that a little scattered bridge icing will be possible over North Alabama tomorrow morning; the primary window for this will be from around 3:00 a.m until 8:00 a.m. I will update this situation on the afternoon discussion later today. Stay tuned…
WARMER WEEKEND: Precipitation will be over by mid-morning tomorrow, and we might see some peeks of sun by afternoon. And, we will warm up slowly, but perhaps not as much as first thought. Model guidance is a little cooler for the weekend, we will adjust our numbers down accordingly later today. The high tomorrow will be in the mid 40s, with upper 50s by Sunday. Sunday will feature a good supply of sunshine.
NEXT WEEK: The next good rain event is still on schedule for Tuesday, but the GFS is trending a little drier with that system with only one-quarter to one-half inch showing up now. No severe weather due to limited dynamics and weak instability. A stronger system promises a much better rain event Thursday and Thursday night.
LONG RANGE: The active southern stream will continue to provide a challenging forecast into the first two weeks of February; no way to resolve details at this point, but a few good storm systems and shots of colder air seem likely.
STORM ALERT 2008: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama begins next week! Our first stop will at Oak Grove High School on Thursday January 31; from there will have shows in Anniston, Northport, Lineville, and Moody. See the details on this year’s show, and the schedule here. We hope to see you along the way!
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
Today I will be speaking at Oak Mountain Intermediate School… then I will be back in the office and the afternoon Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30. Enjoy the day!
