An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…
Not much change in our overall thinking on the event late tonight and early tomorrow after a review of the 12Z model runs.
The primary risk of severe weather for Alabama will come from about 12:00 midnight tonight through 8:00 a.m. tomorrow. While all modes of severe weather will be possible, the primary threat will come from straight line winds along the squall line.
Best possible scenario is that the line of storms weakens over Alabama after midnight, but with such dynamic forcing at play, along with very strong wind fields at the surface and aloft, weakening might not happen, even after midnight.
Watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the associated graphics… but surface based CAPES are now up to around 1,000 k/kg over Jackson, MS, and there is no reason for those values to be any lower over West Alabama later tonight as 60 degree plus (F) dewpoints surge northward. Helicity values remain very high… so a few isolated tornadoes will be possible.
A tornado watch remains in effect for much of Mississippi until 11:00 p.m. And, SPC maintains a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms for much of Mississippi, West-Central Alabama, and Southwest Alabama. There is a slight risk of severe weather for the rest of Alabama.
COLD AIR TOMORROW: Storms will exit the state by mid-morning, and much colder air rolls in here. We will drop from the mid to upper 50s at daybreak into the 40s by midday. There might even be a few snow showers or flurries over North Alabama, mainly over the Tennessee Valley. Then, by Wednesday morning, we will be close to freezing.
REST OF THE WEEK: The fun and games continue… a cold front will bring the risk of a few showers Thursday afternoon or Thursday night. Then, a wave forms on the front in the northern Gulf Friday morning; this might even mean a few snow flakes for somebody around here. Moisture will be pretty limited, so at this point it looks like any precipitation will be light. Friday will be much colder with a high only in the upper 40s, and Saturday should be even colder with another shot of cold air dropping in here Friday night. There is now even some hint at flurries Friday night with that push of cold air. We will focus on these events after we get the system tomorrow out of here.
THE WEEKEND: Saturday looks cold and dry with high somewhere between 45 and 50; Sunday should be warmer with a high up in the low 60s.
SPECIAL LIVE STREAM EVENT TONIGHT AT 7:00: We will have a special weather update on the live ABC 33/40 stream tonight at 7:00… access that via the main ABC 33/40 weather page. We will take a close up look at the approaching severe weather event and spend some time talking about what is ahead for the next 6 to 12 hours.
SPECIAL ABC 33/40 NOAA WEATHER RADIO OFFER: You can purchase a top of the line Midland NOAA Weather Radio at any Handy TV location in this part of Alabama for only $29.95. These receivers have the new digital technology that allows you to choose the counties for which the alarm sounds. Get more information here.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will try to get a new show recorded tonight, weather permitting!
I had a great time today reading to the kids at Vincent Elementary School… we will keep the blog updated with fresh information through the event late tonight and early tomorrow, and weather permitting I will post the next Weather Xtreme video by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
