An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…
FINE FRIDAY: Today will be a delightful day across Alabama; lots of sunshine with a nice warm-up after a chilly morning. Most spots will wind up in the mid 60s today. But, we will be watching the potent storm system as it moves out of the Rockies later today.
SPC has a moderate risk of severe weather late today and tonight for the general region from near Wichita Falls, Texas northward into southern Kansas. Watch the video for all of the associated graphics… but it sure looks like significant threat of severe storms and a few tornadoes for this region.
TOMORROW: There is a moderate risk of severe storms tomorrow for much of Louisiana, Arkansas, and the western half of Mississippi (areas generally along and west of I-55). A slight risk extends eastward to cover much of Alabama for late tomorrow night.
We still believe most of the day tomorrow will be dry here in Alabama, although a few showers could pop up late in the day. At this time it looks like our primary severe weather threat will come from about 9:00 p.m. through 6:00 a.m. Sunday. Here are some severe weather parameters, valid for midnight tomorrow night (from the NAM):
Surface Based CAPE: 12.7 j/kg (yep, that is not a misprint)
Lifted Index 0.3 (that is a positive 0.3!)
0 to 3 km Helicity: 677
SWEAT Index: 391
850 mb Wind Speed (about 5,000 feet off the ground): 69 knots
As you can see, the models are basically showing no surface based instability, but screaming wind fields in the low levels. So, it sure looks like a long squall line will roll through the state late Saturday night with potential for damaging straight line winds. We might even have much thunder, but the potential for strong wind is very good. I guess an isolated tornado is not out of the question, but the straight line wind issue is the big threat here.
I would imagine dozens of severe thunderstorm warnings will be needed late Saturday night into the pre-dawn hours Sunday, and I can easily see a scenario where there is widespread tree and power line damage statewide. Be sure you have a NOAA Weather Radio in your home so you can get the warnings.
SUNDAY: The storms will exit the state by mid-morning, and the sky will become partly sunny Sunday afternoon as drier air moves into the state.
NEXT WEEK: The first half of the week will be dry, but a storm system will impact Alabama about a week from now. The GFS has been all over the road with this one; lets get the weekend system out of the way and we can focus on that one. The 06Z GFS suggests no severe weather at the end of next week, but other runs have shown a setup for strong storms.
NOAA WEATHER RADIO SPECIAL: I got confirmation from our folks last night that all Publix and Handy TV locations in the Birmingham DMA (TV market) now are stocked with the new, digital Midland NOAA Weather Radio receivers. They are on sale for only $29.95; you won’t find a better price anywhere. These are the models that allow you to choose the county for which the alarm sounds. Today or tomorrow would be a great day to pick one of these up for your home and business, since severe storms are possible tomorrow night. My big theme for this week as been “FORGET THE SIRENS”… we must get a Weather Radio in every Alabama home and business.
STORM ALERT 2007: We had a great crowd last night in Jacksonville… thanks to everyone for their hospitality. The final show is next TUESDAY night (not Thursday!) at the Bessemer Civic Center. That is our only Birmingham metro show this year… we will begin at 7:00 and the doors open at 5:00. There is very easy access to the facility; it is right at the Academy Drive exit off I-59/20… bring the whole family. The first 500 people will receive a free t-shirt… and once again we will be giving away 20 NOAA Weather Radio receivers.
WEATHER PARTY: For the latest weather-related news, check out our sister site, weatherparty.com. And, while you are there, be sure and register; you can submit links and vote on them as well to determine what shows up on the main page. There is always something interesting to read over there.
I also wanted to thank the students at Trace Crossings Elementary in Hoover for having me out yesterday for their annual career day… that is always lots of fun. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30 this afternoon!
