The 00Z run of the NAM has finished tonight.
It continues to show a deep, cold core upper low over Alabama by Tuesday of next week. In response to this, a deepening surface low runs from near Laurel to Clanton to Atlanta. The models are beginning to show better agreement with this general idea, which would keep the primary threat of severe storms over the southeast part of the state Monday afternoon and Monday night, generally east of I-65, and south of I-85 (places like Troy, Eufaula, Dothan, and Phenix City).
While this scenario lessens the threat of severe weather for North Alabama, it also increases the chance of a change to snow Tuesday morning. I am not sure we can see too much accumulation due to warm soil temperatures and the fact that air temperatures on Tuesday should be a little above freezing. But, with such a strong cold core system overhead, we have to be ready for just about anything.
We will continue to fine tune the forecast over the weekend…. this will be very interesting to watch!
