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At time time I am writing this, the most numerous showers and storms are south of I-59, or south of a line from Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Gasdsden. These showers and storms seem to be ahead of a pre-frontal trough. Dewpoints remain in the upper 60s all the way to Muscle Shoals, so additional showers or storms could form later this afternoon or early tonight with the actual cold front. Average rain amounts of one-quarter inch are expected through midnight… some spots getting a little more, and some spots getting a little less. Hopefully most places will at least get the dust settled.
TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: Fine fall weather for these three days, with warm afternoons, cool nights, and low humidity levels. Our coolest morning will come early Saturday; the NAM is showing 51 for Birmingham, while the GFS is printing 58. The truth is probably somewhere in between those two numbers. Highs for the weekend will be in the low 80s, very close to average levels for late September in Alabama. Near perfect weather for the high school football games tomorrow night.
NEXT WEEK: Monday and Tuesday are still looking dry, but the 12Z GFS is developing some type of tropical system in the Central Gulf of Mexico at mid-week. An approaching upper trough then pulls that thing up toward Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. If this scenario is correct, it could be pretty wet around here by Thursday and Friday of next week. That rain could linger into the weekend… which happens to be race weekend at Talladega. Of course, we will fine tune the forecast in coming days.
LONG RANGE: Wow… watch the video and see the massive trough up and down the Mississippi River around October 13 (on the 12Z run of the GFS). This would deliver the coldest air so far this season into the Deep South if correct, but we all know that is pure voodoo at this point. That feature will probably be gone on the 18Z run, but it sure is fun to think about.
TROPICS: Lorenzo is getting stronger as it approaches the coast of Mexico… it will be inland within the next 12 hours. On the other hand, Tropical Storm Karen in the Central Atlantic is being sheared apart right now, and is fighting for life. This system, if it can hang on, will move to the northwest over the open Atlantic during the next 4 to 5 days. If it survives, there is still some chance it makes a comeback, and is forced westward toward the U.S. Atlantic coast late next week. Just a possibility…
The tropical wave near Hispanolia remains disorganized, and a wave in the far eastern Atlantic has some potential for development in coming days as it moves to the west/northwest.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: Friday night high school games excellent with clear, dry weather, less humid and about 78 degrees at kick off. In college football, the Alabama/Florida State game will be in Jacksonville at 4:00 p.m. Saturday. Still a risk of some scattered showers with about 82 at kick off. Auburn plays Florida at Gainesville with a 7:00 p.m. kick off. It should be about 82 degrees, but still a few showers and storms possible early in the game. UAB is at Tulsa for a 6:00 p.m. kick off. Clear with 85 degrees as the game starts and falling into the 70s with a brisk south wind. (thanks to J.B. Elliott for this… it came right off his afternoon forecast package over on the seven day page!)
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I sure enjoyed seeing all of the kids at Jemison Elementary this morning… there were almost 1,000 kids in the gym during the program! Be looking for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
