Published on: January 1, 2010 at 8:12 AM

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Happy New Year! The main job for us now is to watch the thermometer to see just how low it will go! The chill is arriving today as the rain edges out of East Central and Southeast Alabama. Most spots had less than a tenth of an inch of rain just ahead of the short wave trough moving across the Mississippi River this morning. But the temperatures are already in the 20s across Tennessee – note it is 23 in Nashville and 43 in Montgomery.

The cold will advect into the state today and this could be one of those days when the temperature either doesn’t rise or actually falls as the cold air advection overcomes any benefits of the sun we should see this afternoon with the expected clearing. And it appears we will be dry through mid-week, about Wednesday of next week, when the next major weather system begins to get it’s act together.

As a major trough develops on the eastern side of the Rockies with a closed low over Illinois, we should see the development of a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern is likely to bring winter weather to portions of the Southeast US on Thursday and Friday. We’ve seen the overall pattern slow down in the past and since we are a good six days out with this system, that is always something that could happen. Specifics on how much and who gets ice or snow are not possible at this time. Now, please note, I AM NOT HYPING THIS!! When you look at the GFS charts for Thursday, you would be an idiot not to see that some sort of winter weather is possible in the Southeast. Mentioning this possibility is not hype – it’s forecasting. If this pattern is not the one that eventually arrives on Thursday or Friday, then there might not be a winter weather threat.

A couple of factors which seem favorable for winter weather next week include the extensive period of cold leading up to this event along with the fact that as of this morning 61 percent of the US was covered by snow. The snow cover north of us will make it difficult for the air to moderate much.

As to the cold, Monday and Tuesday could well be our coldest days with morning lows in the 15 to 20 degree range and highs only in the middle 30s. The last time we saw temperatures fall into the teens was February of 2009.

The pattern remains cold into the second weekend of 2010 as another surface high settles in over the Central Gulf Coast.

Long range projections continue to show an active pattern with another storm threat around the 12th. And, like the 06z run yesterday, this run shows a bit of moderation to the pattern around the middle of January.

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Got a little late this morning due to sleeping past the usual get up time. Guess I will have to use gloves to take down the Christmas lights unless I want to get frost bite! Just kidding about the frost bite. I wish everyone a happy new year. Let’s hope that 2010 represents a year with good things for mankind, a lessening of hatred among people, and steady improvements in our well being. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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