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No real change in our weather through Friday; mostly sunny warm days and fair pleasant nights. What happens over the weekend will all depend on tropical weather developments….
Winds continue to increase over South Florida and the Bahamas, but our system remains in a hybrid state this morning. Most models continue to suggest this thing will get its act together by tomorrow night or Friday over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, becoming Tropical Storm Jerry.
There is actually decent model agreement; most of them bring Jerry to Southeast Louisiana at some point late Friday night or Saturday. The GFDL has backed off on the intensity; the latest run I have in the house (watch the video to see it) suggests the system will be at tropical storm strength when it approaches the mouth of the Mississippi River. This doesn’t exactly jive up with previous tropical systems this season, many of which have featured rapid deepening. There isn’t too much skill at intensity forecasting, especially with a system that isn’t really organized yet. So, lets get this thing into the eastern Gulf and we will have a better idea. But, the water is warm and the outflow pattern looks rather favorable.
We should also note that while the models are targeting Louisiana, we sure can’t rule out this being a problem for the Upper Texas coast. And, of course, everyone in Mobile and Pensacola will need to keep a watchful eye on things as well.
WHAT ABOUT ALABAMA: It still looks like the initial rain shield from the tropical system will remain to the south of I-20; we have introduced the chance of showers south of Birmingham for Saturday; the NAM hints at some rain for the central part of the state on Saturday, but the QPF field on the GFS is farther to the south. Sunday we will need to bring in a chance of showers for most of Alabama as moisture deepens (we will be on the moist east side of the circulation then).
Showers and storms are possible Monday and Tuesday of next week as a good flow of moisture continues into the state.
Just keep in mind some wholesale changes in the forecast are possible anytime a tropical system is nearby.
LONG RANGE: Still no sign of any cold air shot through the first week of October; looks like the tropics will be more interesting. And, hopefully one or two tropical systems will bring some decent rain to Alabama.
OTHER TROPICAL NOTE: Looks like Ingrid is trying to make a comeback north of the Leeward Islands… convection has flared nicely overnight. And, Tropical Storm Ivo has developed in the eastern Pacific… watch the video for more.
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