An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…
Looking back at the weekend, I think we are all amazed at the temperature bust on Saturday. Observed highs on Saturday were 15 degrees colder than forecast due to the clouds that never went away, and cold air advection that never showed up on model output. Just another reminder of who is REALLY in control of the weather. We get about 9.3 out of 10 correct in our 48 hour forecasts, but that .7 can come up and bite you from time to time. It also makes me wonder how anybody can trust model data to project climate 50 to 100 years from now. Enough looking back… lets move on…
TODAY: Nice day with a mix of sun and clouds and a high well up into the 60s. Somebody over on the western side of the state might touch 70 this afternoon.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW: Clouds will thicken tonight, and a band of showers and storms will blow through here after midnight tomorrow. Looks like the prime window for showers and storms will be from about 3:00 a.m. until 12:00 noon tomorrow. We will be watching for the potential for strong to severe storms, but with hardly any surface based instability available (max surface based CAPE I see is 232 j/kg), it doesn’t look like a major threat at this time. But, you know the deal, with thunderstorms, expect the unexpected. We will be watching since the surface low position is favorable for severe weather, and there is decent upper air support.
The NAM has really gotten dry; the 00Z run shows only 0.06″ for Birmingham. The GFS is wetter with 0.26″. But, as you can see, this most likely will be a quick moving line of showers and storms with most folks getting under one-half inch.
And, as the storms move out tomorrow morning, colder air moves into the state. I figure we will be hovering in the 50 to 55 degree range at daybreak tomorrow with the storms moving through; after that we will probably fall down into the 40s and stay there all day with a very chilly breeze developing. Looks like a pretty raw day. And yes, there might even be a few snow flurries tomorrow night over the northern third of the state as the cold air continues to expand into Alabama, and moisture wraps around the back side of the departing system.
WEDNESDAY: Dry and cold. We will forecast a high in the mid 40s with the sky becoming mostly sunny. The day begins with a freeze; early morning lows should be in the upper 20s.
REST OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND: A fast moving front will move through Friday night with the potential for a fast moving, narrow band of showers and storms. The upper support for that front will be well to the north, so rainfall should be relatively light, and no severe weather is expected. Otherwise, the weather should be dry Thursday through Sunday. In fact, the weekend looks pretty decent with highs well up into the 60s on Saturday and Sunday.
VOODOO LAND: The GFS paints a very significant system in here one week from tomorrow, Tuesday March 4. That one could feature beneficial rain, and possibly some severe weather. Stay tuned….
STORM ALERT 2008: Our last show for this year is tomorrow night at Bethel Baptist Church on U.S. 411 in Moody… the show begins at 7:00, and the doors open at 5:00. Come out early and meet our weather team!
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record a new show tonight; it will be posted by 10:00 or so.
SPECIAL ABC 33/40 NOAA WEATHER RADIO OFFER: You can purchase a top of the line Midland NOAA Weather Radio at any Handy TV location in this part of Alabama for only $29.95. These receivers have the new digital technology that allows you to choose the counties for which the alarm sounds. Get more information here.
Looks like another busy week… this morning I am headed over to Lamar County where I will be speaking at South Lamar High School… I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the afternoon edition of the Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30. Enjoy the day!
