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Some days there are real forecast challenges and today is one of those. Here are some of the issues we’re dealing with for Central Alabama:
1) The wedge or cold air damming across North Georgia
2) Weak upper flow with weak disturbances imbedded in that flow
3) Moist air mass
Looks to me that with all of these elements in play across Central Alabama, we have some potential for forecasts going awry. But we push on anyway.
The wedge is clearly in place this morning coming around the southern end of the Appalachians. You can see it clearly when you look at a temperature map of the Southeast Birmingham – 58 Anniston – 52 Atlanta – 44. Of course, the big forecast challenge for temperatures today will be how far west the cooler wedge air will travel. And I think it seems a good possibility that the cooler air will reach to the Anniston area. In the meantime, though, Tuscaloosa could get into the lower 70s.
And the upper air pattern is rather bland with small weaknesses or disturbances in the somewhat zonal flow. These could be accounting for the patches of showers and thunderstorms we see on regional radar this morning, so which feature will be the strongest and win out? I think we could see some isolated showers or thunderstorms today, but the clouds will help to keep heating down somewhat. Time will tell.
I think we will be less susceptible to showers Monday with a slight drying trend and the wedge moves away from Alabama as the surface high translates eastward. A new storm system moving from the Central Plains northeastward into Southeast Canada will drag another front into our area on Tuesday bringing another good round of storms.
Mid week dries out again but another central US surface low is forecast to develop and move northeast dragging yet another front into the area on Friday. The GFS is hinting at the possibility of a surface low along the front on Saturday which could delay the drying then until later in the day.
And voodoo land peeks show that the overall pattern remains active with possible rain producing systems around the 9th and 14th.
I had a great time Friday and Saturday at the 5th Annual SeCAPS meeting in Mobile. I appreciate the invitation from the University of South Alabama and enjoyed speaking to the group of about 125 people. Another conference coming up next weekend at Mississippi State, so I’m burning up the roads.
Thanks for reading/viewing the Blog. I hope you have a great Sunday. James Spann should be back bright and early tomorrow morning with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. God bless.
-Brian-
