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STILL HOT TODAY: Our weather won’t change much today as temperatures rise into the low 90s this afternoon. We might see a shower or thunderstorm on radar during the peak of the heat, but they should be few and far between.
THE WEEKEND: A surface front will approach tomorrow, and should bring an increase in the number of showers and storms, but they will remain scattered. It won’t rain everywhere, and it certainly won’t rain all day. The high tomorrow will be close to 90 with a mix of sun and clouds. The change begins Sunday as a strong upper low sets up northwest of Alabama; we will forecast a good chance of rain and thunderstorms with a high only in the low to mid 80s. The rain should continue Sunday night, which will be very welcomed across a state that has seen very little rain all month.
NEXT WEEK: We will maintain a good chance of showers and storms Monday, although the most recent runs of the GFS/NAM hint the axis of the most widespread rain will shift to the east during the day, mainly east of I-65. Then, a slot of dry air moves into the state Tuesday with returning sunshine and very comfortable temperatures. The GFS is suggest we begin the day Tuesday with a morning low of 57, followed by a high of only 76 with a cobalt blue sky. The rest of the week looks dry and pleasant.
TROPICS: Tropical Storm Lisa will hang around in the far East Atlantic and is no worry for us. Tropical Storm Matthew is approaching the coast of Central America this morning… this one will turn to the north, and is expected to move inland over Belize over the weekend. The steering currents collapse, and Matthew is expected to weaken into a tropical depression as it will be inland over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. From there, it should be picked up by a deep upper trough over the eastern third of the U.S. late next week. The GFS continues the idea of this one impacting South Florida in about a week, followed by a northeast motion up the East Coast of the U.S. All global models continue the idea that Matthew will not impact Alabama. In fact, the northerly flow on the west side of the system could bring the coolest air so far this fall to the Deep South in 7 to 10 days.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games across Alabama tonight, there is just an outside risk of any one stadium getting wet due to the isolated nature of the afternoon showers and storms we expect. Temperatures will fall from the upper 80s at kickoff to near 80 by the final whistle.
Tomorrow, Alabama will travel to Arkansas to play the Razorbacks in Fayetteville (2:30 p.m. CDT kickoff). At this point the weather looks great with a good supply of sunshine, and temperatures falling from near 78 at kickoff to the low 70s by the fourth quarter. Auburn will be at home hosting the South Carolina Gamecocks (6:45 p.m. CDT kickoff); a passing shower or thunderstorm is possible during the game, with temperatures falling from 85 at kickoff into the upper 70s by the end of the game. UAB will be in Knoxville to play the Tennessee Volunteers tomorrow morning (11:20 a.m. CDT kickoff); a shower or storm is possible during the game with temperatures generally in the 79 to 82 degree range. Samford hosts Appalachian State tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. CDT, and just like at Auburn, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but the chance of any spot getting rain remains fairly low. Temperatures will be near 90 at kickoff and hang around the middle and upper 80s through the end of the game.
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