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*** No Video This Morning ***
Okay, I’m just not dedicated enough to take my MacBook Pro out into the drizzle and the east wind at 23 mph gusting to 32 mph to do a video!! I am spending the Memorial Day weekend at Mt. Cheaha and I usually do the Weather Xtreme Video on the porch to the restaurant, but the weather conditions are somewhat less than ideal, so it is just a discussion this morning.
All eyes are on the weak disturbance in the Gulf about 75 miles south of Mobile. It does not appear that it will achieve depression or storm status before coming ashore this morning or early this afternoon between Mobile and Slidell. But the track up through Mississippi will keep Alabama on the wet side of the system with potentially 1 to 3 inches of rain in Southwest Alabama and 1 to 2 inches across Central Alabama with the gradient oriented from east to west with the east getting the least amount. Heaviest rain should be along and just east of the track of the center with up to 4 inches possible.
In addition to the rain which has prompted a Flash Flood Watch for much of Mississippi and Southwest Alabama, look for breezy conditions – downright windy on Cheaha – for much of today and Sunday.
The weak surface low and upper level reflection will move northwestward today and Sunday and gradually weaken and dissipate into the first of next week. This should keep the weather somewhat unsettled for much of Alabama through Sunday. But as the weak tropical system departs to the northwest Monday, it leaves behind a moist, tropical air mass which is going to keep a showery regime in place for much of the upcoming week. And with lots of clouds and perhaps some peeks at the sun, temperatures should remain somewhat unchanging for late May with morning lows in the mid and upper 60s and afternoon highs in the lower 80s.
The GFS does not give much hope for change all week and even well into voodoo land with a nearly semi-permanent trough over the eastern half of the country. A front next weekend approaches the Southeast, but with the westerlies remaining just a hair too far north, I really do not expect the front to make a serious impact on our weather pattern. So for the moment a summer-like humid air mass means shower chances just about every day well into the foreseeable future.
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I hope you enjoy the holiday weekend which kicks off the summer vacation season. I know the weather is not going to be exactly wonderful for the usual outdoor activities, but after the drought of 2007, I’m not inclined to complain about whatever rain we get – even on weekends and holidays. I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted tomorrow morning by 8 am or so. Godspeed.
-Brian-
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