Wet And Stormy Mid-Week Period

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CHANGES AHEAD: Clouds continue to increase over Alabama this afternoon. The sky is overcast over the northwest counties of the state, where a little light rain is showing up on radar, and temperatures are in the low to mid 50s. But, from Birmingham south and east, the sun is shining and folks there are enjoying spring-like temperatures in the mid 60s. Clouds will take over statewide tonight, and a pretty generous rain event is ahead for tomorrow and Thursday.

STORM NUMER ONE: The first system we will deal with moving through the El Nino enhanced southern stream will bring rain to the state beginning tomorrow. The most widespread rain will be along and north of a northward moving surface front (warm front), so the heaviest rain during the day tomorrow should come over the northern half of the state.

Rain and storms will be widespread tomorrow night; SPC has expanded the slight severe weather risk area to include that part of Alabama south of a line from Tuscaloosa to Montgomery to Andalusia. There won’t be much surface based instability around here, so I don’t think we have a big problem, but we will keep a close eye on the radar. When it comes to thunderstorms, expect the unexpected, you know.

That first batch of rain and storms will end Thursday morning, and there is a chance the sun peeks out during the midday hours Thursday. This will push temperatures toward the 70 degree mark, helping to push the surface based CAPE values to over 1,000 j/kg by late afternoon. Then, the door will be open for one additional line of storms Thursday evening, and those storms could pack a punch. The RPM doesn’t show much development, and the air will be drier, but we will have to watch for any strong to severe storms Thursday evening. See the Weather Xtreme video for more on this whole set-up.

The NAM is printing 1.58″ of rain through Thursday night, while the GFS is much more aggressive with 2.92″. The guys at HPC favor the GFS solution, and it now looks like we will need to forecast an average of two inches of rain, with potential for up to 3 inches in a few spots. The ground is not saturated, so major flooding problems are not expected.

Friday will be partly sunny and mild with a high in the low to mid 60s.

STORM NUMBER TWO: Our second storm will impact Alabama in a big way late in the weekend. Saturday still looks dry, although south winds will be increasing, and clouds will increase as well. Rain and storms move in during the day Sunday, and SPC has much of Alabama in a severe weather risk. The dual threat of heavy rain and severe storms is a real possibility, but we really can’t be too specific on this system until storm number one gets out of our way. Looks like a good chance of 1 to 2 inches of rain Sunday with a very dynamic system.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Cooler and drier air invades the state Monday; the 12Z GFS isn’t quite as cool as the 06Z run we showed on the video this morning; the latest run suggests a high around 50 Monday, with mid 50s Tuesday. Another storm system is due in here toward the end of next week, and Arctic air will likely revisit the continental U.S. as we get into February. Still too early to determine how cold it gets down here in good ole Alabama. Just don’t put away the winter clothes.

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