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TROPICAL AIR: The air hanging over Alabama is what it feels like just before a major hurricane arrives on the coast. Purely tropical in nature, and an environment with potential for some very healthy rainfall in coming days. Very difficult to time out exactly when the rain will start and stop, but just be aware that rain could fall at any hour of the day or night through Friday, and a few thunderstorms could be involved as well. I was driving into work yesterday and rain into a tropical downpour at I-65/I-459, and visibility was down to 1/16 of a mile. Most folks just pulled over and waited it out. Our SKYCAM over at the Wingate Inn on U.S. 280 measured 1.14″ of rain, much of that falling in only 20 minutes.
The NAM is getting really more aggressive with rain, and is now printing 2.66″ for Birmingham during the next 84 hours. The GFS is at 1.75″ through 60 hours, and the QPF guys at NCEP suggest three inch rains for much Alabama through Friday. While we don’t expect any widespread flooding, a few flash flood warnings could be required along the way. The good news is that severe weather doesn’t look very likely.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Nothing to sweep out the moist air, but the tropical low responsible for the wet weather, and the associated upper low, will become more diffuse, so we figure the showers could be a little fewer in number Saturday and Sunday. But, no doubt there is a chance of showers both days. Highs will be mostly in the low 80s with a few peeks of sunshine both days.
NEXT WEEK: Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the 00Z GFS is finally developing a nice long wave upper trough over the eastern half of the nation, and if that solution just happens to be correct, we will finally have cooler and drier air in here by the middle of next week.
TROPICS: Very very quiet for mid-September. Freddie is dead, and is just hanging around 45W with no sign of life in the middle of the Atlantic. A positive MJO pulse later in the month might bring things to life before the season ends.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
