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RAIN TAPERS OFF LATER TODAY: This is our best rain event since August 26 (when 1.13″ was measured at Birmingham)… widespread moderate to heavy rain has been falling over Northwest Alabama during the pre-dawn hours, and that big rain mass will move east during the morning. I still think the QPF chart (see the Weather Xtreme video) from HPC is too aggressive; we are going to wind up with two to four inches of rain for the northwest counties, but for the rest of the state totals closer to one inch are likely. And, severe weather is not expected today since the air remains stable.
The rain will end from west to east during the midday hours, and most of the rain should be east of here by mid-afternoon.
TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Our weather still looks dry with warm afternoons and pleasant nights. Friday should be the warmest day with a high in the low to mid 80s; afternoon temperatures will back down on Saturday and Sunday thanks to an easterly flow. A little Atlantic moisture will also move in, but for now we don’t see enough for any significant chance of rain.
NEXT WEEK: The GFS continues to push the big storm over the Rockies this weekend far north of Alabama, into Canada by mid-week as an upper air ridge holds across the Southeast U.S. This means the weakening surface front at mid-week probably won’t bring much rain; we will mention just a chance of showers by Tuesday night and Wednesday.
INTO THE LAND OF VOODOO: Still no sign of a sharp trough that could bring the very cold air over Canada down this way; the 00Z GFS keeps the westerlies north of here. And, we will need to keep an eye on the tropics where many believe some action will flare up in coming weeks.
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Today I am headed up to Walker County… I will be speaking at Sumiton Elementary School at midday. I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon. The great Alabama weather legend J.B. Elliott will keep you posted on the progress of the rain as the day rolls along…
