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WET AND ACTIVE WEATHER: The maps sure don’t look like late July this afternoon. A large scale upper trough dominates the eastern half of the nation, and we will remain in an unsettled weather pattern through the weekend.
THE NEXT 12 HOURS: For the rest of the afternoon and tonight, SPC maintains a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for much of North and Central Alabama. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for the complete details; right now the best instability (greater than 3,500 j/kg CAPEs) are over Southwest Alabama, while the best low level shear (0 to 1 km helicity values over 250 m2/s2) are from near Oxford, Mississippi down to about Monroe, Louisiana. That axis of higher low level helicity will move into Northwest Alabama later this afternoon, and if instability values can increase (which is a big question), then we will have to watch for rotating updrafts. But, with a large rain mass over Northwest Alabama now, it is unlikely that instability values will increase very much.
Bottom line is that the severe weather threat for the rest of the afternoon and tonight looks rather marginal at this point, but we will be watching storms that develop just in case. Tornadoes are very rare in Alabama in late July…
REST OF THE WEEK: Occasional showers and storms are likely all the way through Friday, and beneficial rain is likely statewide. The 12Z NAM is printing 1.71″ of rain for Birmingham during the next 84 hours, while the GFS is wetter with 2.00″. HPC guidance continues to hint at 3 to 5 inches of rain for North Alabama through Saturday, so we will also have to watch for any potential flash flooding issues as the ground becomes saturated. Daytime temperatures will remain below average with highs only in the low to mid 80s; some places could even stay in the 70s all day where rain begins during the morning hours.
WHAT ABOUT THE WEEKEND: Moist air stays in place on Saturday and Sunday, so there will be a chance of showers and storms over the weekend, but they could be more scattered as the upper ridge tries to rebuild. Highs should be in the upper 80s.
TROPICAL WEATHER: Still no sign of Ana. You can always find a few tropical waves out in the Atlantic this time of year. It is interesting to note that a series of low-pressure areas moving westward across Africa is a sign that the Cape Verde season of tropical storms could be heating up soon. Some of those lows slide off into the Eastern Atlantic already fairly well formed.
AT THE BEACH: No telling how many people will want to be at the beach this weekend as summer vacations slowly come to a halt. There is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms each day through Friday. They may decrease some on Saturday. Highs will be in the upper 80s.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Scroll down for the show notes; this week features a very interesting discussion on Internet weather sources.
FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….
| James Spann | Jason Simpson | Ashley Brand |
| J. B. Elliott | Bill Murray | Brian Peters |
| Dr. Tim Coleman | E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings) |
I sure enjoyed my visit with the Pell City Rotary Club this afternoon… what a great crowd for summer. We will have updates on the thunderstorm situation through the rest of the afternoon and tonight; my next video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
