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RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY: A broad, long wave upper trough continues to cover much of the nation, and will keep our weather unsettled through the beginning of the weekend.
A series of vorticity centers will move through the upper trough in coming days, and will bring occasional showers and thunderstorms to the Deep South. The rain could come at any time, and a few strong storms could be involved. But, due to limited instability and marginal wind fields, major severe weather issues are not expected.
HOW MUCH RAIN? I note my rain gauge here in North Shelby County is showing 1.02″ so far… and we have good potential for an additional 3 inches through Saturday, with isolated amounts of over 5 inches. The NAM is printing 1.13″ for the next 84 hours, while the GFS is at 1.93″. Both models are having a hard time handling this anomalous pattern for mid-summer, and are probably a little too dry.
Temperatures, of course, will remain well below average due to the clouds and rain. We note Huntsville set a new record low maximum temperature yesterday; their high was only 79 degrees; the old record was 81 set in 1962. We will forecast highs in the mid 80s, but some places could hold in the 70s all day.
SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK: As the heights begin to rise, look for the showers and storms to become more scattered next week, with increasing amounts of sunshine and warmer temperatures. Still, the GFS hints that temperatures will remain below average with rain above average through mid-August. It sure looks like the summer of 2009 will be a relatively wet and cool one for the Deep South.
TROPICS: Pretty amazing out there… just one tropical wave near 30W; otherwise hardly any clouds with very dry air in place, and tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend.
AT THE BEACH: Only 3 to 5 hours of sunshine each day through Friday with a good chance of showers and storms. Look for a little more sun over the weekend as the showers and storms become more widely separated. Highs will be in the mid 80s, generally speaking.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
