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RAIN RETURNS: Clouds have invaded our state as expected this afternoon, and the large mass of rain over Texas and Louisiana will arrive late tonight and early tomorrow. The NAM is now printing 1.32″ of rain for Birmingham through tomorrow night, while the GFS is drier with 0.68″. As usual, the truth is probably somewhere between those values; we figure most places will see 1/2 to 1 inch of rain. There is virtually no surface based instability tomorrow, so severe weather is not expected.
Wednesday should be a dry and pleasant day with a partly sunny sky and a high in the low 70s. We do note the huge model difference between the NAM with a high of 67, and the GFS with a high of 77. The GFS has been too warm this fall, so we lean toward the cooler solution. One way or another, it should be a nice autumn day.
END OF THE WEEK STORM SYSTEM: Still more questions than answers when it comes to our end of the week system. A few showers will likely break out with a warm air advection pattern Thursday, but the big show should come Friday and Friday night when showers and storms will be likely ahead of an intense upper trough. Each global model run has looked a little different, making the timing very hard to deal with. Still seems like the main band of rain and storms will be in here Friday night, and the 12Z GFS suggests we might have an QLCS issue (quasi linear convective system) with potential for damaging straight line winds. Seems like the best chance of strong to severe storms will come from late Friday afternoon through about midnight Friday night, but with time the best dynamics will be lifting north of Alabama, so hopefully that will prevent a major severe weather problem. We will have much more clarity on this event as the week progresses.
HALLOWEEN WEEKEND: Improving weather is the story Saturday; it looks like the rain will end early in the day, perhaps before sunrise, with the sky becoming partly sunny by Saturday afternoon. The GFS is printing 76 for Saturday afternoon, which looks a little warm; low level thickness values suggest a high in the low 70s. Sunday still looks very nice, with ample sunshine and a high in the low to mid 70s.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Tonight, it’s a fond look back at one of the best weather television shows ever: PBS’s AM Weather from the 70s and 80s. Join the panel, Joan von Ahn, Carl Weiss, and NWA President-elect Steve Zubrick for a trip down a meteorological memory lane. The show should be posted by 11:00.
STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on Saturday November 14 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years). We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.
I had a great time today visiting with the St. Vincent’s East Auxiliary this morning… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…..
