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CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT: The latest NAM (12Z) is printing 0.60″ for Birmingham, while the GFS shows 0.47″. I believe the drier GFS is closer to the truth; very dry, continental air covers Alabama this afternoon, and there simply isn’t much time for a good return of moisture for this cold front tomorrow.
The models are also trending slower, so I think we need to drop the word “morning” in our forecast tomorrow, and just mention periods of rain through the day, with the rain ending from west to east during the afternoon. Stable air should mean very little thunder (positive LI values).
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: This period will be cool and dry; afternoon highs around between 47 and 55, with lows at or below freezing each morning. Dry air means a good deal of sunshine each day with only a few scattered clouds around.
NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS has gotten more aggressive with the weather system due in here Tuesday; it shows a deepening surface low moving along U.S. 80, with good upper air support. This should mean widespread rain and a few thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night, with the potential for over one inch of rain. Then, much colder air blows in here Wednesday with some potential for light snow flurries on the back side of the departing system. Lets hope this run is right since we sure could use the rain. I drove past Lake Purdy yesterday, and levels are very low for December.
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I had a great time seeing the kids this morning at Elvin Hill Elementary in Columbiana… be looking for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News!
