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A large mass of rain is moving into West Alabama as I write this update, and it sure looks like most of the state will see some rain during the next 24 hours. Despite the impressive radar screens, however, the 12Z NAM has backed off on the projected rain through mid-week, it now prints only 0.23″, while the 12Z GFS shows 0.25″ for Birmingham. The low levels remain relatively dry and stable, and that seems to be the biggest problem in getting heavier rain totals in here. The models actually are showing a rather aggressive, negative tilt trough just northwest of here tomorrow, which often means severe weather in April. But once again the lack of good low level moisture and instability should prevent a major severe weather problems, and keep rainfall totals relatively light.
Needless to say, we will continue to mention a few periods of rain and possible thunderstorms statewide tonight and tomorrow.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: A nice warming trend on these days, although the models have backed off on the degree of warming on Thursday. Both the NAM and the GFS are closer to 70 on Thursday (the GFS was showing 82 for Thursday on the 12Z run yesterday!)… but the GFS does warm us up to 80 on Friday. Both days should be dry, but active weather develops to the west with a major upper trough coming out of the Rockies. Severe storms will likely develop Friday afternoon and evening over the eastern part of Texas, East Oklahoma, and much of Arkansas and Louisiana.
OUR WEEKEND: The active weather moves into Alabama on Saturday as the upper trough continues to move on to the east. At this point it looks like the trough will be positive tilt, and everything at this time seems to point to a squall line moving through here during the day Saturday with the chance of strong, perhaps damaging straight line winds. We are getting many questions concerning the timing of the storms on Saturday; for the moment it looks like the main band of storms will enter West Alabama around mid-morning, then moving through the rest of the state during the midday hours. The storms should exit Alabama, moving into Georgia, by late afternoon. Bottom line is that the best chance of thunderstorms will be from about 8:00 a.m. until 5:00 p.m. We will be able to fine tune the degree of the threat and the timing as the event gets closer.
Sunday will be a windy day with noticeably cooler temperatures. Looks like we won’t get out of the 50s Sunday afternoon with a very cool north breeze.
MONDAY MORNING: The 12Z run of the GFS is advertising 38 for Birmingham early Monday morning… sure looks like some risk of scattered frost early Monday for the colder valleys of North Alabama, and maybe even a light freeze for the coldest spots. Again, we will fine tune this as we get closer to the weekend.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The 12Z GFS has totally backed off on the idea of any significant rain around here Monday through Friday of next week… it takes a system over the Southwest U.S., and moves it southeast through Texas and into the Central Gulf of Mexico, well to the south of Alabama. But, a very strong system shows up now on April 24 with potential for heavy rain and strong storms. But, there isn’t much consistency in the longer range and we are really into voodoo land.
WEATHER BRAINS: I listened to this week’s WeatherBrains netcast while I was driving today… what a great show (I wasn’t on it… maybe that is why it was so good!). Be sure and check it our on the web, or on iTunes! Always great to have Dr. William Gray on the show.
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page.
I had a great time today speaking to the students at Pinson Elementary… be looking for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
