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The overall weather pattern will be changing slowly but it does appear likely for showers and thunderstorms to become more likely on Sunday as the stationary front to our north and west finally settles into the Tennessee Valley today and Sunday. The big question on my mind is how strong the inversion will remain today. The inversion showed up well on the sounding from the Shelby County Airport last night, so it will be interesting to see the latest sounding in about two hours. I think we’ll see only isolated showers at most across Central Alabama as the focus remains on that stationary front.
But as that front settles toward Central Alabama on Sunday, I expect to see widespread showers and thunderstorms with reasonably good chances that nearly everyone will see some rain. I think the QPF forecasts of around a half inch look reasonable, but the nature of convective events means some spots will get more than that and some a little less. The focus for severe weather remains to our north as the main upper trough stays to the north. And SPC has mentioned an area of Middle and West Tennessee that touches surrounding states for an area to watch tomorrow with damaging wind the most likely element to occur.
The trough axis swings by Monday which should bring an end to the chances for rain through mid and late week. Another closed low in the southern Rockies will bring more rain and storms to Texas and Oklahoma, but that system is not expected to affect us until next Saturday.
Temperatures will be about where we expect them – highs in the lower 80s – for much of the upcoming week.
Looking further afield, the pattern remains somewhat active though not nearly as active as we saw in the winter and first part of spring. Another fairly strong trough could bring a cold front into the Southeast toward the end of May bringing some cooler air with it. But that’s a long way out – just something to be hopeful about.
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I had a great time at Valley Intermediate School in Pelham yesterday reading to some of the 3rd and 4th grade classes. Reading is so important that I always like to be able to respond to requests like that to encourage reading. Busy day ahead, too, so I hope you will have a chance to enjoy the day. Godspeed.
-Brian-
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