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RAIN CHANCES INCREASING: A surface boundary (we don’t like to call them cold fronts in August!) will slowly approach Alabama, bringing an increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms around here during the next 36 hours. Look for scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon and tonight; we note SPC has the northwest corner of Alabama in a slight risk for severe weather as there will be potential for mircobursts in the stronger storms. A boundary from last night’s convection northwest of the state will also help to improve low level convergence and add to the thunderstorm potential over North Alabama later today.
We will maintain a good chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, although they will be shifting southward during the day, and by late afternoon the most numerous ones could be south of Montgomery.
The 00Z NAM is printing 0.88″ of rain for Birmingham, while the GFS shows 0.75″. So… looks like most places can expect one-half to one inch of rain, but as we all know amounts can vary greatly with summer rain events due to the convective nature of the precipitation.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Drier air will cover Northwest Alabama on these days, and the general area from Muscle Shoals to Tuscaloosa should be dry, with a small risk of a shower or two for Birmingham and Gadsden. Deeper moisture will be south of a line from Anniston to Selma to Mobile, so the best chance of rain will be in this part of Alabama on these two days.
WEEKEND PEEK: Moisture returns statewide over the weekend, so we will mention the chance of a few passing showers or storms both Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the 87 to 90 degree range. There should be a few intervals of sunshine as well.
TD2 FORMS: The second tropical depression of the season has formed in the eastern Atlantic. It remains to be seen if this one will recurve harmlessly into the open Atlantic, or continue west/northwest. If it doesn’t recurve, it seems to be in a position to stay north of the Caribbean, meaning it most likely won’t be a Gulf of Mexico threat. The GFS continues the idea of this getting close to the east coast of the U.S. in about 10 days or; the 00Z run recurves it just offshore with no landfall. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for the full details and graphics on tropical action.
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I will be speaking this morning at the annual broadcast meteorology program summer workshop on the campus of Mississippi State University… always fun getting back to Starkville and seeing old friends. I will be back in the office this afternoon and should have the afternoon Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30… enjoy the day!
