No Jerry yet and the radar presentation seems to have diminshed from earlier today. But forecasters and weather enthusiasts around the Southeast US will certainly be having a big time over the next several days as the area of disturbed weather off the Southeast Florida coast treks generally northwestward and … Yes, and does what? Just like most weather geeks, I’ve been watching the developments over the last couple of days, and it sure looks like we could see the development of our tenth named storm of the 2007 season within the next 12 to 36 hours.
First obstacle, of course, will be South Florida. Storms have a hard time getting their acts together when they are over land, even when it is the relatively low, wet land of the Everglades and South Florida. It probably would be another outcome if there were some sizeable mountains in South Florida, but there aren’t.
A couple of factors appear favorable for development. One is the relatively warm water off the west coast of Florida. It appears that sea surface temperatures are running in the mid and upper 80s over that area. And another factor favoring development appears to be a lessening of shear in the area of the eastern Gulf from about Naples northward to Apalachicola.
And just as I was beginning to write this post, the latest NAM had finished running and the GFS was out to 78 hours. Both of these suggest a small storm tracking toward the central Gulf Coast between Mobile and New Orleans. Other models seemed to be focusing on the Southeast Louisiana Coast. And there seemed to be pretty good agreement between the NAM and the GFS that the storm will not be terribly strong and relatively tight in terms of overall size.
So there will be lots of eyes watching what unfolds as we head into Wednesday and Thursday. And if Jerry forms he just might dampen the weekend for the Central Gulf Coast. Stay tuned – life goes on.
-Brian-
