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THE ALABAMA WEATHER STORY: We will have on to a chance of widely scattered showers this evening, but most high school football stadiums should be dry; the kickoff temperature will be in the low 80s, dropping into the upper 70s by the fourth quarter.
We will hang on to a small risk of a shower tomorrow, but the chance of any one spot getting wet is only about one in six. Then, our weather will be dry Sunday and Monday with lower humidity and cooler nights. Much of next week looks pretty calm; a surface front will come through on Tuesday, which might trigger a shower in a few spots, but moisture looks very limited. A better rain event most likely will come toward the end of next week with a stronger front, helped along by a significant upper trough which should keep Hurricane Ike from bothering us.
HANNA: Hanna will make landfall tonight along the coast of the Carolinas with lots of wind and rain; it will be a strong tropical storm, or a minimal hurricane. It will then move pretty much along the eastern seaboard all the way to Cape Cod over the weekend. The primary threat from Hanna will come from downed trees and power lines, and the associated power outages. Flooding should not be a big issue since the system will be moving along rather quickly.
IKE: OK… I have had e-mails today from people telling me that The Weather Channel, some guy on another blog, Willard Scott, Sarah Palin, Barney the Dinosaur, Peyton Manning, Ray Nagin, Mick Jagger, and Hanna Montana are calling for Ike to be a major hurricane with a landfall on the Gulf Coast between Mobile and New Orleans next week. I always welcome dialog from our readers, but I honestly don’t use ideas from those sources when we come up with a forecast. I am very interested to know what my associates here say (J.B., Tim Coleman, etc), but I don’t have time to dig around and look in other places. And, by the way, those people are not forecasting landfall on the Gulf Coast (I hope you know that was a slight exaggeration… just trying to bring a few laughs as we approach the weekend; hold the nasty e-mail). I won’t use the real names of people who are being “turned in”… but some are seemingly wanting to drum up trouble for our friends in New Orleans that simply don’t need any more trouble.
Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see why I don’t believe Ike is a problem for the Central Gulf Coast, and I don’t believe it gets west of latitude 85W. Yes, the models have shifted to the left… but almost all of them show Ike turning northward before 85W. This includes the GFDL, the HWRF, and the ole GFS.
I believe Ike will be in the vicinity of the southern tip of Florida by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, followed by a northward turn, right up the Florida peninsula, caused by a strong upper trough moving eastward out of the Plains. The GFS turns Ike back into the Atlantic; I think it moves along the coast, much like Hanna, expect much stronger. Ike could make it into the far southeast corner of the Gulf, then moving up to a point near Punta Gorda, much like Charley. But, the turn could happen earlier, meaning a direct threat to Miami.
A good analog is Hurricane Donna from 1960.
I still believe that everyone in Florida along and south of I-4 need to get their hurricane plans together, and be ready to carry out those plans by Sunday.
I do not believe Ike will be a factor for Alabama, or the Central Gulf Coast. But, you know the disclaimer, we are still early in the game and we are open to change based developments in coming days.
JOSEPHINE: This one really looks ill on the satellite; the convection is removed from the center; there is just a low level swirl. Josephine will move west/northwest over open water in coming days, and should remain a tropical storm.
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We will have updates rolling all weekend here on the blog; Brian Peters will have the Weather Xtreme video tomorrow and Sunday; my next one will be posted bright and early Monday morning by 7:00. Enjoy the weekend!
