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WILD WEATHER DAY: Our pre-Christmas storm will impact a large part of the nation today, and everything seems to be developing farther south that models have been forecasting. NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) techniques certainly are far from perfect, and struggle in anomalous patterns like this one (El Nino, strongly negative AO). Often it is simply better to look at the pattern; nobody was calling for snow flakes at Dallas or Muscle Shoals even two days ago, but the idea not only is on the table, but likely now. This is the reason I said last week this is the best pattern for a snow event at Christmas in my many years of doing the weather on TV here, and I stand by that, even though this particular surface low is just too far north for a big snow down here. There will be others in coming weeks, however.
RIGHT NOW: The main surface low is near Longview, Texas. Models a few days ago had it near Kansas City at this time. The low will be moving north/northeast today, and the pressure gradient will tighten up as the day progresses.
HIGH WIND POTENTIAL: Southeast winds in the 20 to 40 mph range are likely today, with higher gusts, especially on the ridge tops. This means some potential for downed trees and power lines, and I would strongly recommend you secure all of those Christmas decorations (or anything else) that might blow away. The winds will diminish after midnight.
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL: Rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely across most of Alabama, with the bulk of the rain coming from 12:00 noon to 12:00 midnight. The NAM is printing 1.52″ for Birmingham, with the GFS at 1.26″. The NWS in Huntsville continues a flash flood watch for their counties in the Tennessee Valley, but we don’t expect widespread flooding down this way (although as few isolated problems are certainly possible).
STRONG STORM POTENTIAL: The severe weather risk as defined by the Storm Prediction Center today and tonight is generally south of a line from Butler to Greenville to Dothan. There is simply no surface based instability available up here, but we will be watching for elevated storms that might bring problems. The dynamics are tremendous, but the thermodynamics are seriously lacking. Remember, when it comes to thunderstorms, expected the unexpected, so we will be watching. We note this system did produce a number of rotating storms last night around the Ark-La-Texas region, with tornadoes touching down around Longview and Lukfin, Texas.
SNOW POTENTIAL: Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see how the RPM model handles things tomorrow morning; it brings a nice batch of light snow/snow flurries across the northern third of Alabama. The deeper moisture will be long gone, but no doubt we will need to mention a chance of snow flurries tomorrow morning, as far south as I-20. The best chance of a little dusting will be around Muscle Shoals. When you get up early tomorrow to open the presents, be sure and look out the window. With energy transferring to a secondary low over South Carolina, we will have to watch for surprises.
CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE WEEKEND: Cold is the word; we will hover around 40 all day tomorrow with a brisk north wind, and highs over the weekend will be in the low to mid 40s with a mix of sun and clouds.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The pattern is screaming winter weather mischief around here through early January, but there is no way computer models, or humans, can be specific far in advance, as we have all learned about this ongoing storm. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for some ideas… I figure we will have one or two wintry weather threats during the next three weeks as the cold, unsettled pattern rolls along.
We are going into a holiday schedule concerning the video production schedule, so look for just one video per day through the New Year’s weekend. But, we will keep the blog updated frequently, so keep checking in with us. I will be working the TV side both tonight and tomorrow night.
I just wanted to take this opportunity to wish you and your family a peaceful, blessed, and powerful Christmas. This is truly the most wonderful time of the year; cherish the moments. We appreciate your support and friendship, and look forward to a great 2010!
