An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…
Anyone remember the old song by Dusty Springfield?
“Wishing and hoping and
thinking and praying,
planning and dreaming
each night of his charms
that won’t get you into his arms,
so if you’re looking to find love
you can share, all you gotta do,
is hold him and kiss him, and love him
and show him that you care”
Here in the summer of 2007 we are wishing and hoping for rain, and we are going to have a hard time finding any for the next seven days.
The pattern is actually pretty interesting; we have a mean upper trough along the Atlantic coast of the U.S., and a weak northerly flow aloft here. Sometimes, you will get MCS (mesoscale convective system) development over states like Missouri and Illinois that ultimately will wind up in Alabama with this kind of setup. For that reason we will mention a small risk of an overnight shower, but most likely any MCS will fizzle out before reaching us.
The best chance of showers over the next few days will be east of Alabama, under the upper trough. Around here, any afternoon showers or storms should be very widely spaced, and most of them will come over the eastern third of the state where moisture will be slightly deeper. We do expect the heat levels to back off a bit in coming days, with afternoon highs in the 89 to 93 degree range; model MOS guidance remains too cool (as it has been for weeks).
WEEKEND PEEK: No real change in the pattern; for now it looks like any afternoon showers and storms on Saturday and Sunday will be rather isolated, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s.
LONG TERM: The GFS, on both the 06 and 12Z runs, develops a nice, deep upper trough along the Mississippi River around June 20-21. IF that happens to be correct, that would bring a good chance of showers and storms. But, lets remember you don’t forecast rain in the middle of a drought, and June 20-21 is in voodoo land at this time. It sure sounds nice, but I fear that feature might disappear on future model runs.
TROPICS: We continue to watch a flare of convection in the Northwest Caribbean, but no sign of any organization right now. Environmental conditions don’t seem especially favorable for development for the next few days.
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I am posting a little early today…the next Weather Xtreme video will be up on the server and on iTunes by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
