Fay has made what could be the definitive move we’ve been waiting for…toward the west, or maybe a little south of due west (about 260). The chart below shows the 2-hour pressure change. The area where pressures are falling rapidly … Continue reading →

I don’t know. We’ll see. This has already been a fascinating storm, intensifying over land yesterday, and assuming it makes it out into the Atlantic Ocean for a little while before turning west, it will make at least 3 landfalls … Continue reading →

A radar loop from Miami, from 6 am to 130 pm, is shown above. Note the eye in the tropical storm, even over land. Fay has already been one of the most interesting and challenging tropical storms I can remember…maybe … Continue reading →

See full text of 4 pm NHC advisory on Fay below from JB. Fay is becoming better organized this afternoon…as bands of thunderstorms rotate toward the center of circulation. The storms release heat due to condensation, and this is what … Continue reading →

The models continue to have difficulty forecasting Fay’s track and intensity. The 18 UTC models have shfted back to the west. Clearly, as I said on Friday, no one, including those of us who have spent many years in meteorology, … Continue reading →

Latest guidance on Fay has shifted even further to the left. This is an intermediate run without new balloon data…we’ll see what the 00 UTC runs do about 8 or 9 pm. If the trend in the models continues, this … Continue reading →

Weatherbrains listener David Reimer from Texas sent in a question about a very interesting feature…out ahead of an area of storms in Texas early this morning. He wondered if it is an outflow boundary or a gravity wave. The answer … Continue reading →

Thanks to Meteorologist Ashley Brand for this awesome birthday cake today! We all knew she was good at her job, but who knew she was a master baker and a cake designer?

The tropical wave 200 miles east of the Leeward Islands continues to be disorganized today, but NHC feels that conditions will become more favorable for development into a disturbance or a tropical storm over the next day or two. US … Continue reading →

On the northern end of the line of storms that was moving through parts of southwest Alabama a little bit earlier, a somewhat rare circulation formed known as a Mesoscale Convective Vortex, or MCV. These are typically larger than mesocyclones … Continue reading →