As I wrote the other night, this system looks a lot like the one on February 1, 2007 in Huntsville, in which the precipitation started out as snow, changed briefly to freezing rain, then all rain. I thought that scenario … Continue reading →

NAM, GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and Canadian all in. Keep in mind, there will be anywhere from 6 to 11 model runs for each of these models, plus the European, for a total of about 46 computer models for us to … Continue reading →

Quick peek at latest NAM shows surface low forming near Brownsville, TX Wednesday morning, moving to just south of Pensacola Thursday morning. Upstream trough associated with Arctic air coming into Plains states may be enough to keep low further south, … Continue reading →

After 14 hours in the Stormchaser with Brian Peters yesterday, maybe I’m tired and my forecasting is off. But, models are in fairly good agreement that a surge of cold air will move into Alabama next week, and at some … Continue reading →

Things still appear to be shaping up for a severe weather event in Alabama on Thursday. In its new day 1 convective outlook, SPC has placed us in slight risk, but mentions that an upgrade to moderate risk may be … Continue reading →

While not over, the severe weather threat seems to have decreased in the past hour. Wind shear remains high, and an isolated high wind report or tornado is still not out of the question, but instability continues to slowly decrease … Continue reading →

Storm in southern Walker County still looks dangerous to me. It does have some rotation, and is at least a damaging wind threat. 00 UTC BMX sounding shows 0-3 km helicity of about 350, and a little bit of instability. … Continue reading →

That’s the tough question tonight. The wind shear remains sufficient to maintain storms, with 0-3 km helicity above 300 from BHM north, and near 400 in NW Alabama. But, SPC mesoscale analysis shows that instability decreases rapidly east of the … Continue reading →

The forecast for next weekend will be interesting. We should see some cold air return to Alabama late next week, then the cold front may stall near the Gulf Coast, allowing a surface low pressure area to form along it, … Continue reading →